Why is world cup betting among the favorite tournaments?
Every four years the world comes together in a celebration of football when the top 32 teams from 6 federations compete for the right to be crowned the World’s best international team. Arguably it is the greatest single sporting show on Earth.
In recent World Cups there have been a total of 64 matches played: 48 group games where eight groups of four teams play three matches each, followed by eight second round games, four quarterfinals, two semi-finals, a third-place play-off and the final. Typically in each match there is one favorite and one underdog. It is relatively uncommon for two teams to be exactly equally rated.
World Cup betting strategy: How to successful bet on world cuo tournament?
Of course 64 matches is just a small sample. We should not let ourselves be fooled by the law of small numbers. How do things look if we take a broader picture?
Unfortunately, I don’t have historical Pinnacle match odds for earlier World Cups tournaments. Instead, analyzing the database of 1,152 tournament plus qualifying games I referred to earlier, we see a very different picture, and one that is consistent with the existence of the favorite-longshot bias.
Backing all 1,152 match favorites to $1 level stakes would actually have returned a profit of $13.61 (or 1.2%). The 1,152 underdogs? A loss of $319.91 (or -27.8%).
We can picture the relative difference in performance of the preferred versus the underdogs by plotting a theoretical time series of our evolving bankroll if we could have bet all these teams consecutively in order of ascending odds, that is to say starting with the shortest-priced teams and finishing with the longest.
Broadly speaking, the crossover between favorite and underdog occurs at odds of around 2.7 to 2.8, or a win probability of about 36%. Until we reach that point, backing all the popular broadly allows us to keep our financial heads above water. Thereafter, it seems we tumble over a financial cliff.
Soccer World Cup Odds
The FIFA World Cup is one of the most anticipated and regarded international soccer tournaments, where players represent their countries to win the World Cup. With international superstars like Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe, Neymar Jr., and Karim Benzema all featuring, Qatar is going to be one of the most exciting tournaments we’ve seen in quite some time!
The event has been held every four years since 1930, meaning there have been 21 editions of the World Cup. In 90 years, we have seen plenty of FIFA World Cup betting odds, and we plan to take full advantage of the huge array of games and options available. The odds were last updated on October 20, 2022
The next World Cup will be in 2022, hosted by Qatar in November (this is the first instance where it is not held in May-July). This will be the first instance of the World Cup being held in an Arab country.
Viewership for the World Cup is exponential. It is the most viewed and prestigious sporting event and even overshadows the Olympics and the Super Bowl.
The tournament format includes a qualification phase, a knockout phase, a round of 16, quarter-finals, and semi-finals, and the final will be played on December 18, 2022. The tournament has hosted 32 teams since 1998, and 2022 will be the last year for this as the number of teams will increase to 48 to allow for more inclusion of smaller African and Asian associations.
Top World Cup Betting Prospects For 2022
The domestic and European soccer leagues are well underway. We’ve had the pleasure of watching some of the best young talents in Europe battle it out in Champions League matches, with young talents like Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé showing why they are the most exciting players in the world.
Mbappé is playing his football at Paris Saint-Germain, alongside the legendary Lionel Messi and the showman Neymar Jr, who are showing why PSG will be the team to beat in Europe this season. Despite Haaland being one of the best players in the world right now, scoring more goals than he’s played in both the Champions League and Premier League, where he’s now playing under Pep Guardiola for Manchester City.
There are a variety of unique betting promotions for the World Cup that involve these kinds of names, as providers know they will provide some highlight reel moments in Qatar.
France will be without superstar Paul Pogba but still boast one of the strongest sides in the competition. Brazil, Belgium, England, and Spain are also showing why they are in with a chance of winning, and it’s something many World Cup betting tips sites are predicting.
We mentioned Messi, who is thriving at PSG this year after struggling the previous year, earlier, and it’s likely to be his last World Cup. Given his age and the way, he’s slowed down. We expect to see the little magician just one more time. Many sites covering the outright betting market for the World Cup are showing an interest in Argentina. While we don’t believe it will be their year, they’re definitely worth a shot.
The World Cup finals are the tournament finale, and the winners have crowned the World Cup title holders for four whole years until another team wins. With such a large and prestigious tournament, oddsmakers and sportsbooks offer plenty of betting opportunities and World Cup betting odds on each match throughout the month-long event.
But first, let’s look at some popular World Cup betting options and where we can place our wagers for the 2022 World Cup.
What is the favorite–longshot bias?
The tendency to overvalue “longshots” and undervalue favorites is widely known in the world of sports betting and finances as the suit longshot bias. Learn what it is, how bookmakers take advantage of it and what you can do to survive it with a profit.
Every bookmaker applies a margin to his betting odds to ensure that he can make a profit. He does this by shortening the odds relative to the fair expectation associated with each outcome. For a 2-player game, for example, where the odds for player A winning are ‘a’ and the odds for player B winning are ‘b’, the margin will be given by:
Margin = [(1/a) + (1/b)] x 100%
For more extensive information, go to How do I calculate betting margins? For a fair book, this sum will always be 100%, since it is a reflection of the sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes. For a bookmaker’s book, the sum will always be more than 100%. The excess is known as the overround, vig, or juice. What is less clear is how the bookmaker loads his margins: All on player A, all on player B or spread evenly across both players A and B?
How margin is added to the odds
Common sense would dictate that liabilities would be best managed by spreading the margin equally across each player. For example, if two players are evenly matched, their fair odds are 2.00. Applying a 2.5% margin equally across each player would shorten their odds to 1.95.
But what about contests with clear favorites and underdogs, for example with betting odds of 1.20 and 6.00? An even distribution of the margin would see odds shorten to 1.17 and 5.85 respectively. This, however, is commonly not what happens.
Instead, we are more likely to see odds that look like 1.19 and 5.41. The odds for the underdog have been shortened far more than the odds for the favorite. In terms of margin percentage, the underdog has a margin of 11%, whilst the common has a margin of just 1%. Why should this be happening? The explanation for it is traditionally provided by what is called the darling–longshot bias.
Examples of the favorite–longshot bias
There is now considerable evidence from the world of sports betting to show that long-shots are disproportionately shorter relative to their fair prices than favorites, from horse racing, football, tennis and other minority sports.